Iara Lima

Have you ever stopped to think that your daily life is shaped, all the time, by decisions you did not make? The bus that arrives on time, the vaccine that reaches the health center, the school that opens its doors, the storm alert that arrives on your phone. None of this happens by chance. All of this is public policy.

The term refers to the decision-making process for addressing public problems. Public policies are governmental action programs aimed at resolving issues that affect the collectivity. A public policy is only public when it responds to a public problem—that is, to a situation that bothers a considerable number of people.

No policy is born ready. It goes through a cycle: agenda setting (which problems enter the list of priorities), formulation (how to address them), implementation (the execution itself), and evaluation (what worked and what needs to change). The agenda is the heart of this process: it is what defines what will be treated as a problem and what will be ignored. And that is where the political dispute becomes most visible.

We are in an election year in Brazil, but the public machine does not stop. The federal government presented its priorities for 2026: the end of the 6×1 work schedule, the regulation of app-based work, the Public Security PEC, and the anti-faction bill. These are themes that directly affect the lives of millions of workers and the security of cities.

But this is where the conversation becomes urgent. Brazil is already facing one of the most severe climate events of recent decades. Projections indicate that the 2026 Super El Niño has more than a 90% probability of reaching the “very strong” category and a 75% chance of being the most intense since 1950. A study by the Climate Impact Lab of the University of Chicago projected 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, and Brazil appears as the fifth most affected country, with approximately 13,300 deaths estimated from extreme heat.

The impacts will be unequal. In the South, the projection is for intense rains and floods. In the Northeast and Southeast, extreme heat and heat waves. In the North and Central-West, severe drought and risk of fires. Most of the projected deaths are expected to occur in the North and Northeast regions, with emphasis on Pará, Maranhão, Amazonas, and Bahia.

The Ministry of Health has already begun preparing the SUS (Unified Health System) for the impacts of El Niño. Starting in October, a window of attention goes into effect that extends until March 2027, with specific regional strategies: strengthening the National SUS Force in the South, extreme heat maps and hydration points in the Northeast and Southeast, rapid response bases in the North and Central-West. In September, an extraordinary credit of R$ 64 million was released for food security and affected Indigenous peoples.

But the question that remains is: will this be enough? The projection of 13,300 deaths in Brazil is not just any number. It is a warning. And it reminds us that public policy is not an abstraction. It is the difference between having or not having a contingency plan when the temperature exceeds 40 degrees.

Public policies are the concrete translation of what a society decides to be. They reveal priorities, choices, and, often, omissions. In an election year, with a Super El Niño knocking at the door, discussing public policy is not just an academic exercise. It is a matter of survival.